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forecast error growth, ECMWF, MODES

MODES has been applied for a scale-dependent estimates of the growth of forecast uncertainties in a global prediction system.  A  new parametric model for the representation of the forecast error growth is formulated and applied independently to every zonal wavenumber.  

Reference: N. Žagar, M. Horvat, Ž. Zaplotnik and L. Magnusson, 2017: Scale-dependent estimates of the growth of forecast uncertainties in a  global prediction system, Tellus A, 69, 1287492.  

Full paper is available at http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16000870.2017.1287492

Figure 8 from the paper shows the growth of global forecast errors towards the saturation based on ECMWF data in May 2015. Forecast errors are computed independently for each zonal wavenumber and normalized by their values at day 60 in each wavenumber. The isolines are every 0.1 and thick black isolines correspond to 0.6 (bottom), 0.9 (middle) and 0.99 (top) values. The small figure in the upper right corner is the growth over the first 2 days of the forecast.